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September 19th, 2014 Board Retreat Presentation - Regional Growth Trends2012 REGIONAL FORECAST Presentation to the Isle of Wight County Board of Supervisors Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist September 19, 2014 Growth Trends in Hampton Roads Looking to 2040 WHAT IS THE HRPDC •1 of 21 Regional Planning Agencies •State enabled; locally created •10 Cities, 6 Counties, 1 Town; 1.7 million people; 3,000 square miles; 5,000 miles shoreline •Commission –45 local elected officials & CAOs •Staff –Executive Director & 45 staff •Funding –Local contributions, grants and contracts •Functions –Economics, Housing, Transportation, Environmental, Emergency Management •Budget $16,000,000 + •Role –Policy & Technical Analysis, Planning & Engineering Studies, Cooperative Problem Solving, Coordination •Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 2 Historic Population Growth 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 19 6 0 19 6 2 19 6 4 19 6 6 19 6 8 19 7 0 19 7 2 19 7 4 19 7 6 19 7 8 19 8 0 19 8 2 19 8 4 19 8 6 19 8 8 19 9 0 19 9 2 19 9 4 19 9 6 19 9 8 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 4 20 0 6 20 0 8 20 1 0 20 1 2 Annualized growth rate of 1.16% 84.1% growth since 1960 3 Components of Population Growth (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Nu m b e r o f P e r s o n s Births, Deaths, and Net Migration in Hampton Roads Births Deaths Net Migration 4 Population Growth from 1960-1990 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% Hampton Roads Average 5 Population Growth from 1990-2013 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Hampton Roads Average 6 Annualized Population Growth Over the Past Decade 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% Isle of Wight Virginia United States Hampton Roads 7 Population Growth in Isle of Wight 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 19 6 0 19 6 2 19 6 4 19 6 6 19 6 8 19 7 0 19 7 2 19 7 4 19 7 6 19 7 8 19 8 0 19 8 2 19 8 4 19 8 6 19 8 8 19 9 0 19 9 2 19 9 4 19 9 6 19 9 8 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 4 20 0 6 20 0 8 20 1 0 20 1 2 8 Population added per Decade in Isle of Wight 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 9 Forecast for 2040 •Population •Employment by place of work –Retail –Industrial –Office –Other •Households •Employment by place of residence •Passenger Vehicle Registrations 10 1.Literature Review of Forecasting Techniques 2.Review Best Practices 3.Data Collection •Raw Data •Locality Data •Research Assumptions •Model Inputs 4.Produce Draft Control Totals 5.Produce Draft Jurisdiction Totals 6.Review Draft with Planning Staff/LRTP Subcommittee Forecast Methodology Regional Control Totals 11 Forecast Methodologies Literature Review & Best Practices Techniques •Extrapolation •Ratio •Cohort •Structural Best Practices •Diverse methodologies •Iterative process •Top Down / Bottom Up •Dynamic / Structural Evidence Suggests: Forecast Accuracy Increases with Population Size Increases with slow steady positive growth rates Declines over time 12 Location of 2040 Households 1 Dot = 100 Households 13 Location of 2040 Employment 1 Dot = 100 Employees 14 Change in Households, 2009 to 2040 1 Dot = 100 Household Increase 1 Dot = 100 Household Decrease 15 Change in Employment, 2009 to 2040 1 Dot = 100 Employee Increase 1 Dot = 100 Employee Decrease 16 Total Population 2040 Peninsula 583,000 East Southside 875,466 West Southside 533,534 Total 1,992,000 2040 Population 17 Total Employment 2040 Peninsula 375,401 East Southside 646,212 West Southside 230,988 Total 1,252,600 2040 Total Employment 18 Portion of Population Growth 2040 2009 Population 2040 Population Projected Growth Peninsula 519,124 583,000 63,876 East Southside 763,861 875,466 111,605 West Southside 344,289 533,534 189,245 Total 1,627,274 1,992,000 364,726 19 Portion of Employment Growth 2009 Total Employment 2040 Total Employment Projected Growth Peninsula 316,607 375,401 58,794 East Southside 567,203 646,212 79,009 West Southside 156,008 230,988 74,981 Total 1,039,818 1,252,601 212,783 20 Change in Households, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 21 Change in Employment, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 22 Projected Population Growth 2010-2040 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 23 Projected Population Growth Rate 2010-2040 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Hampton Roads Average 24 Projected Employment Growth 2010-2040 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 25 Projected Employment Growth Rate 2010-2040 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Hampton Roads Average 26 What DRIVES Population Growth at the Local Level •Space •Schools –Quality & perception •Employment –Access & opportunity •Affordability –Relative housing costs •Amenities •Transportation –Access and options •Quality of Life 27 Conclusion •Isle of Wight has experienced strong growth in recent years •Population and employment forecasts suggest that Isle of Wight will continue to experience very strong growth in the coming years •Real estate, education, employment, affordability and quality of life are important factors in determining the extent of growth 28 Questions Greg Grootendorst Hampton Roads Planning District Commission ggrootendorst@hrpdcva.gov 757.420.8300 29